Lines on NBA
Welcome to Lines on NBA, the site that provides the NBA enthusiast with all of the up to the minute lines and betting information.
Welcome to linesonnba.com, the site that provides the NBA enthusiast with all of the up to the minute lines and betting information.
This site was created to assist the NBA bettor in cashing in on profits during the NBA season.
In order to win over the long haul, the bettor must be privy to all of the latest information during the basketball season; you will find all of that information and more right here.
Welcome to linesonnba.com, the site that provides the NBA enthusiast with all of the up to the minute lines and betting information.
This site was created to assist the NBA bettor in cashing in on profits during the NBA season.
In order to win over the long haul, the bettor must be privy to all of the latest information during the basketball season; you will find all of that information and more right here.
Lines on NBA News
NBA: Orlando still favored, just by less in Game 4
2009-06-11
The NBA Playoffs offer so much insight into the teams, coaches and players, one can’t help but be excited about all the strategy changes and maneuvering if you are true basketball fan and wagering on games. Speaking of which, Thursday’s Game 4 brings a bit lower pointspread (Orlando -3) and a bit higher total (201). See how bettors have reacted to these oddsmakers adjustments on the BETTING TRENDS page.
Sometimes the boxscore’s paint a picture and other times they don’t, just like Game 3. Would it seem possible Orlando would take nine fewer three-point tries than the Lakers, convert three less than Los Angeles and still come out on top? The high quality adjustment made by Magic coach Stan Van Gundy, having his squad push the ball at every opportunity, before the slow-reacting Lakers defenders reacted, helped Orlando shoot 62.5 percent, yet the Magic had the same number of fast break points as L.A. (10)
This all adds to tremendous intrigue for Game 4. It is the Lakers turn to adjust, having to win one of the next two contests in Central Florida, really placing the pressure on Orlando to win twice on the Left Coast. Oddsmakers in part see Los Angeles making the right moves, as Sportsbook.com has them as 2.5-point underdogs, down from 4.5 in last contest. The Lakers are 10-2 ATS as an underdog this season and many people can’t foresee them being so off-kilter a second game in a row.
Los Angeles defenders took almost every fake, reacted poorly on defensive rotations, seldom getting a hand in the face of shooter or giving them clear path to the goal, like the Magic had free pass. L.A. shot free throws, well like Dwight Howard used to, converting on 16 of 26. At various points, Lamar Odom, Derek Fisher and Andrew Bynum played like some of the Seven Dwarfs (feel free to make this interactive article, by filling in your own matching dwarf with player performance). Kobe Bryant didn’t look like Kobe at crunch time and they will need him to have reversal of fortune quickly or this series will be 2-2.
For Los Angeles to improve on 14-6 ATS record as road underdog of 4.5 or less points, Lakers guards have to do better job feeding the post to Pau Gasol and Odom and they need to be more alert and ready. Hustle back on defense and be ready to defend the entire shot clock time, not just the parts that fit into schedule. Offensively, a more conventional return to triangle offensive, since isolation and top of the key screen and rolls were well defended by Orlando and might have contributed to Bryant appearing so fatigued late in the contest.
Orlando didn’t cover, but won the game. They are well-suited 20-6 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season. The Magic played at tempo more suitable to players like Rafer Alston and Dwight Howard in Game 3. Alston’s ability to push the ball led to more open shots, (which he made) and Howard’s skill as athlete showed thru, as he also ran the floor and made hard cuts to the hoop.
Hedu Turkoglu was a dominant contributor, even making just one three-pointer, dishing the ball for seven assists, while converting 7 of 12 shots. Mickael Pietrus toasted L.A. for 18 points and played physical with Kobe and the Magic double-teams were better timed, making Bryant less effective.
Game 3’s total was Over and oddsmakers adjusted upward, raising the figure to 201.5. This is potentially swell news for Orlando backers, with the Magic 12-3 ATS at home game when the total is between 200 and 204.5 points. Van Gundy’s team needs to set the tempo and they are 12-4 UNDER at Amway Arena after a combined score of 205 points or more this season. The Lakers like-wise have to bring aggressiveness shown in four prior games, to first conflict in Orlando and are 13-3 UNDER off a road loss this year, winning by an average of over eight points per contest.
Game 4 will come down to adjustments and execution, though bettors might just want to ride the tide with underdog 7-1 ATS and the OVER 6-0 in Florida when these two clubs meet.
NBA: Orlando looks to even the score (8:05 PM ET, ABC)
2009-06-08
The great thing about the NBA Finals is no matter how magnified a blowout win or loss is, it only counts for one game. The Los Angeles Lakers showed in Game 1 against Orlando why they were favored to win the NBA title, with conclusive 100-75 mauling. This was the third consecutive full team effort from the Lakers, who might be finally matching everyone’s expectations. Orlando will try to bounce back in Game 2 on Sunday night. Most bettors don’t believe they will, as with the pointspread set at Lakers -6.5, over 90% of the early action goes that way according to the BETTING TRENDS page.
If Kobe Bryant continues with the “mean face” he might land a few minor acting roles as villain or thug. The way he played in the series opener, he might be on his way to MVP after scoring 40 points, while dishing out eight assists and snaring the same amount of rebounds. It was rather evident, Bryant was setting the tone for the Lakers intensity and anybody wearing a gold uniform that wasn’t going to play hard, might as well grab some bench or face the wrath of Kobe the Terrible.
The Los Angeles defensive game plan was brilliant, holding Orlando to 29.9 percent shooting. The Magic are unlikely to shoot as woefully again in the series, nonetheless the difference between how Cleveland defended Orlando’s long range shooters and what the Lakers did was clear. The Cavaliers defense is more structured and is not as good straying 20 feet away from the rim. Los Angeles, when focused, has the athletes and length to contest three point shots and when Orlando players give ball-fakes and drive to basket, a number of tall Lakers are part of the greeting committee.
That was the Lakers first cover of a NBA Finals game in last dozen tries (1-10-1 ATS) and it does not guarantee they will cover the 6.5-point spread at Sportsbook.com for next contest. Since 1997, the last 20 teams that won by 10 or more points are only 12-8 and 10-8-2 ATS in next contest.
You have to chuckle about what teams say about injuries. Jameer Nelson was either “definitely out” or “will not play under any circumstances”, yet a guy wearing number 14, with “Nelson” on a back of deep water blue Orlando jersey played better than 23 minutes in the opening contest. Coach Stan Van Gundy may have opened the Pandora’s Box in letting Nelson play so much, as Rafer Alston was rendered useless. Alston is smart enough to know Nelson is a better shooter, probably a better playmaker, but it was he who took over the squad at the point guard and helped bring the team into the Finals.
Nelson was immediately effective upon hitting the floor, however after about the six minute mark of playing; he was ineffectual like the rest of his teammates. Van Gundy has potentially hazardous situation to workout.
The Magic got away a little too quickly from the big man in the middle, when the game was still within reach just before the midpoint of third quarter. Dwight Howard totaled six shots, with ONE make and was 10 for 16 from the charity stripe. Orlando offense works best most nights when they play inside-out, giving the touches the broad-shouldered one has requested. The Magic are 15-4 ATS off a road loss and 14-3 against the spread if it is by double digits.
Orlando complained outwardly about not being mentally ready, but what they were really saying they weren’t ready for was Kobe and the Lakers actually prepared to play 48 minutes. The Magic have had two days of preparation to make adjustments and forgettable loss is easy to shake for a team that is 13-5-1 ATS who about 71 hours between assignments.
Phil Jackson will presume Howard will see the ball with a higher frequency and be more aggressive in taking it to the hoop. His players might need to be a few inches even closer in second encounter, with Orlando likely hitting more of their shots. Offensively, keep attacking the Magic off the dribble and have motion that sets up Lamar Odom and Luke Walton for interior baskets. The Lakers also are very solid off two days of rest with 8-2 ATS mark.
The total has been reduced to 202 and L.A. is 12-2 UNDER as a postseason favorite. You have to figure the Magic bunch can’t play any worse and are 20-11 UNDER when the total is greater than or equal to 200.
The start time Sunday for Game 2 moves up an hour to 8 Eastern and Hedu Turkoglu and the guys will have to bring more game if they expect to improve upon recent 7-2 ATS run.
NBA: 25 Top NBA Finals Trends
2009-06-03
The 2009 NBA Finals might not offer the matchup that everyone expected, but it should still be a competitive series, and one that commands attention from bettors everywhere. Besides all of the specific key matchup info that we have available for you on the GAME MATCHUP for this intriguing series, take a look at this list of 25 Top NBA Finals’ Betting Angles we’ve put together for you. They are broken up into several categories. After soaking this up, head over to the LIVE ODDS page to get in on the action yourself.
EASTERN/WESTERN CONFERENCE TRENDS
* The EASTERN CONFERENCE has won seven straight NBA Finals games against the spread after the West had won eight of the prior 10.
* Overall, since ’97, the WESTERN CONFERENCE holds a 37-29 SU edge, but the ATS series is tied 32-32-2.
* The EASTERN CONFERENCE has only been the FAVORITE in 21 of the last 67 NBA Finals’ games. Their record in that role: 18-3 SU & 12-9 ATS.
* The WESTERN CONFERENCE has accumulated a 33-10 SU & 22-19-2 ATS mark as chalk in the NBA Finals since ’97.
FAVORITE/UNDERDOG TRENDS
* Dating back to ’97, ROAD TEAMS playing as FAVORITES or in pick em’ spreads are 12-2 SU & 9-4-1 ATS.
* The UNDERDOG team won four of the six games in the 2008 NBA Finals against the spread.
* SMALL HOME FAVORITES have been a great bet in the NBA Finals, as those laying 4-1/2 points or less are 18-4 SU & 15-7 ATS since ’97.
* It’s been a dangerous proposition to lay big points in the NBA Finals of late. Dating back to 2000, FAVORITES of 7-1/2 points or more are 9-3 SU but just 2-9-1 ATS.
OVER/UNDER TRENDS
* UNDER has been the total of choice in NBA Finals games of late, 10-6 over the course of the last three series’.
* Thursday’s Game 1 of the ’09 Finals between Orlando and the Lakers will be the first Finals’ game in over 12 years with a total of 200 or more.
* In the last 20 NBA Finals’ games with posted totals of 190 or above, the OVER has been the winning total 12 times, as opposed to 8 UNDER’s.
SERIES GAME NUMBER TRENDS
* The HOME TEAM is 5-1 SU & ATS in Game 1 of the NBA Finals dating back to 2003.
* Game 1 of the NBA Finals has gone UNDER the total five straight times.
* The HOME TEAM is also 5-0 SU & 4-0-1 ATS in Game 2 of the NBA Finals since ’04, with the last four teams owning home court advantage in the series going up 2-0.
* Although HOME TEAMS own a 4-1 SU edge in the L5 Game 3’s of the NBA Finals, the ROAD TEAMS have swept the last three ATS.
* The EASTERN CONFERENCE has owned Game 4 of the NBA Finals of late, going 5-1 SU & ATS since ’03.
* FAVORITES have also dominated Game 4 in the NBA Finals, 11-1 SU & 8-4 ATS since ’97.
* Home court advantage virtually disappears once Game 5 of the NBA Finals arrives, as the last 18 games from then on have been split 9-9 SU with ROAD TEAMS owning a distinct 12-6 ATS edge.
* OVER has been the correct total wager in nine of the last 13 NBA Finals Game 5’s and beyond.
SEED NUMBER TRENDS
* There have been three teams in the NBA Finals playing as seeds #3 or lower since ’02. They have performed very well: At home, those teams are 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS in that span. On the road, they are 5-4 SU & 5-2-2 ATS.
* #1 seeds have had some trouble protecting the home court vs. non-#1 seeds, just 3-7 SU & 2-6-2 ATS since ’01 in the NBA Finals. However, on the road they are 6-1 ATS in that same time frame.
SCORING TRENDS
* The benchmark point total for HOME TEAMS to reach is 96 points in the NBA Finals. When doing so, they are 26-5 SU & 18-11-2 ATS since ’97.
* When HOME TEAMS have eclipsed the 92-point mark in the NBA Finals, OVER the total is 23-9 since ’97. When they don’t score 93 points or more, the UNDER is 31-3.
* For ROAD TEAMS, the magic-mark seems to be 93 points. When they reach that total, they are 14-7 SU & 19-1-1 ATS since ‘98.
* Although a point total for any team of 80 or less this year seems unlikely between the Magic and Lakers, past ROAD TEAMS that have failed to eclipse the 80-point mark are just 2-16 SU & ATS in the NBA Finals since ’97.
NBA: Cleveland and backers in search of answers (8:35 PM ET, TNT)
2009-05-29
It’s not a great time to be a Cleveland basketball fan, because what looked like a return to the NBA Finals is in serious jeopardy. The Cavaliers situation has everything to do with what is taking place on the court, not preconceived notions. Cleveland may have one of the two best players in basketball; however the team is not as good as Orlando’s. The margin of difference is not dramatic, but it is enough to matter and Cleveland backers have four losing wagering tickets to prove it in this series. Still, the Cavs are a hefty favorite tonight and most bettors figure they’ll extend this series to a 6th game. Get the latest percentage breakdown on the BETTING TRENDS page.
So what have been the differences to this point, let’s examine.
Orlando plays an unusual style of offense; basically they have Dwight Howard as only true post player, surrounded by four perimeter players. Howard, though limited in offensive moves, has superior strength over Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Anderson Varejao and its laughable to suggest Ben Wallace would do better job than either of those two. Howard has had his way in the paint and uses his quickness to snatch offensive rebounds and have put-backs.
When Cleveland decides to double-team Howard, this leaves open the Magic’s array of shooters, who either can make medium or long distance shots, or drive to the basket thru open lanes created by doubling-down on Howard. It is clear the Cavs players are much more comfortable double-teaming within 5-15 feet range, as compared to being spread out like Orlando forces them to do at greater distances. This leaves coach Mike Brown with a real dilemma, either drink the poison or be injected with it.
Though Mo Williams and Delonte West are normally reliable shooters, they have not been in this series, not even close. This was never more evident than in Game 4, when the Cavaliers where moving the ball crisply and players that were able to get into the teeth of Orlando defense were kicking out passes to Williams and West and neither looked like they could make a shot if the basket was 2-feet larger in diameter. West to his credit worked on isolation matchups and was effective on the block in postup situations. Unfortunately, this twosome was gruesome 0-6 beyond the arc.
Cleveland returns home, where they are 44-3 (31-16 ATS), with one of the losses coming in the East Finals. As mentioned previously, one of the most difficult challenges for a sports bettor to overcome is believing what you are seeing and letting go of paradigms. Though Cleveland had the best regular season record and breezed thru first two rounds, they were 2-8 ATS versus teams that had 70 percent or higher win percentage during the regular season and four more losses have been added during this series.
Because Orlando had never accomplished much in the postseason, they were fairly easy to dismiss going up against Cleveland. The fact is the Magic are 32-18 SU and ATS on the road and though they were hammered a couple times in the postseason, to be that strong as a visitor speaks to the team’s true value.
Also, matchups are important and seeing Orlando is 10-4 and 13-1 ATS against the Cavaliers, this proves they have the physical and physiological edge.
Sportsbook.com has Cleveland as 7.5-point favorite with total of 190. For the Cavs to force Game 6 and beyond, they have to have starters play as they have all season. Orlando has gone through shooting droughts and still managed to make enough baskets to matter, Cleveland has not. The Cavs need to find help off the bench as well, since they are being buried by Magic reserves. Cleveland is 13-2 ATS off a road loss and 17-6 against the spread if it was three points or less.
Cleveland has too often talked, instead of played in this series. Even coach Brown is living in make-believe land. “This is about as even of a series as you can ask for. They’ve just made one or two plays down the stretch more than us. But I still feel the confidence, I still feel the togetherness and I still feel like we have a chance to win this,” Brown said. Coach, I hope you know this, but it is those one or two critical plays in games that make the difference between wins and losses and your team isn’t making them, no matter how much you love each other.
Though Orlando won’t discuss it, they are 9-1 ATS off two or more consecutive home wins this season and teams with 3-1 leads in NBA playoffs are 182-8 in league history to finish off series as winners.
The action continues on TNT starting at 8:35 Eastern.
2009-06-11
The NBA Playoffs offer so much insight into the teams, coaches and players, one can’t help but be excited about all the strategy changes and maneuvering if you are true basketball fan and wagering on games. Speaking of which, Thursday’s Game 4 brings a bit lower pointspread (Orlando -3) and a bit higher total (201). See how bettors have reacted to these oddsmakers adjustments on the BETTING TRENDS page.
Sometimes the boxscore’s paint a picture and other times they don’t, just like Game 3. Would it seem possible Orlando would take nine fewer three-point tries than the Lakers, convert three less than Los Angeles and still come out on top? The high quality adjustment made by Magic coach Stan Van Gundy, having his squad push the ball at every opportunity, before the slow-reacting Lakers defenders reacted, helped Orlando shoot 62.5 percent, yet the Magic had the same number of fast break points as L.A. (10)
This all adds to tremendous intrigue for Game 4. It is the Lakers turn to adjust, having to win one of the next two contests in Central Florida, really placing the pressure on Orlando to win twice on the Left Coast. Oddsmakers in part see Los Angeles making the right moves, as Sportsbook.com has them as 2.5-point underdogs, down from 4.5 in last contest. The Lakers are 10-2 ATS as an underdog this season and many people can’t foresee them being so off-kilter a second game in a row.
Los Angeles defenders took almost every fake, reacted poorly on defensive rotations, seldom getting a hand in the face of shooter or giving them clear path to the goal, like the Magic had free pass. L.A. shot free throws, well like Dwight Howard used to, converting on 16 of 26. At various points, Lamar Odom, Derek Fisher and Andrew Bynum played like some of the Seven Dwarfs (feel free to make this interactive article, by filling in your own matching dwarf with player performance). Kobe Bryant didn’t look like Kobe at crunch time and they will need him to have reversal of fortune quickly or this series will be 2-2.
For Los Angeles to improve on 14-6 ATS record as road underdog of 4.5 or less points, Lakers guards have to do better job feeding the post to Pau Gasol and Odom and they need to be more alert and ready. Hustle back on defense and be ready to defend the entire shot clock time, not just the parts that fit into schedule. Offensively, a more conventional return to triangle offensive, since isolation and top of the key screen and rolls were well defended by Orlando and might have contributed to Bryant appearing so fatigued late in the contest.
Orlando didn’t cover, but won the game. They are well-suited 20-6 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season. The Magic played at tempo more suitable to players like Rafer Alston and Dwight Howard in Game 3. Alston’s ability to push the ball led to more open shots, (which he made) and Howard’s skill as athlete showed thru, as he also ran the floor and made hard cuts to the hoop.
Hedu Turkoglu was a dominant contributor, even making just one three-pointer, dishing the ball for seven assists, while converting 7 of 12 shots. Mickael Pietrus toasted L.A. for 18 points and played physical with Kobe and the Magic double-teams were better timed, making Bryant less effective.
Game 3’s total was Over and oddsmakers adjusted upward, raising the figure to 201.5. This is potentially swell news for Orlando backers, with the Magic 12-3 ATS at home game when the total is between 200 and 204.5 points. Van Gundy’s team needs to set the tempo and they are 12-4 UNDER at Amway Arena after a combined score of 205 points or more this season. The Lakers like-wise have to bring aggressiveness shown in four prior games, to first conflict in Orlando and are 13-3 UNDER off a road loss this year, winning by an average of over eight points per contest.
Game 4 will come down to adjustments and execution, though bettors might just want to ride the tide with underdog 7-1 ATS and the OVER 6-0 in Florida when these two clubs meet.
NBA: Orlando looks to even the score (8:05 PM ET, ABC)
2009-06-08
The great thing about the NBA Finals is no matter how magnified a blowout win or loss is, it only counts for one game. The Los Angeles Lakers showed in Game 1 against Orlando why they were favored to win the NBA title, with conclusive 100-75 mauling. This was the third consecutive full team effort from the Lakers, who might be finally matching everyone’s expectations. Orlando will try to bounce back in Game 2 on Sunday night. Most bettors don’t believe they will, as with the pointspread set at Lakers -6.5, over 90% of the early action goes that way according to the BETTING TRENDS page.
If Kobe Bryant continues with the “mean face” he might land a few minor acting roles as villain or thug. The way he played in the series opener, he might be on his way to MVP after scoring 40 points, while dishing out eight assists and snaring the same amount of rebounds. It was rather evident, Bryant was setting the tone for the Lakers intensity and anybody wearing a gold uniform that wasn’t going to play hard, might as well grab some bench or face the wrath of Kobe the Terrible.
The Los Angeles defensive game plan was brilliant, holding Orlando to 29.9 percent shooting. The Magic are unlikely to shoot as woefully again in the series, nonetheless the difference between how Cleveland defended Orlando’s long range shooters and what the Lakers did was clear. The Cavaliers defense is more structured and is not as good straying 20 feet away from the rim. Los Angeles, when focused, has the athletes and length to contest three point shots and when Orlando players give ball-fakes and drive to basket, a number of tall Lakers are part of the greeting committee.
That was the Lakers first cover of a NBA Finals game in last dozen tries (1-10-1 ATS) and it does not guarantee they will cover the 6.5-point spread at Sportsbook.com for next contest. Since 1997, the last 20 teams that won by 10 or more points are only 12-8 and 10-8-2 ATS in next contest.
You have to chuckle about what teams say about injuries. Jameer Nelson was either “definitely out” or “will not play under any circumstances”, yet a guy wearing number 14, with “Nelson” on a back of deep water blue Orlando jersey played better than 23 minutes in the opening contest. Coach Stan Van Gundy may have opened the Pandora’s Box in letting Nelson play so much, as Rafer Alston was rendered useless. Alston is smart enough to know Nelson is a better shooter, probably a better playmaker, but it was he who took over the squad at the point guard and helped bring the team into the Finals.
Nelson was immediately effective upon hitting the floor, however after about the six minute mark of playing; he was ineffectual like the rest of his teammates. Van Gundy has potentially hazardous situation to workout.
The Magic got away a little too quickly from the big man in the middle, when the game was still within reach just before the midpoint of third quarter. Dwight Howard totaled six shots, with ONE make and was 10 for 16 from the charity stripe. Orlando offense works best most nights when they play inside-out, giving the touches the broad-shouldered one has requested. The Magic are 15-4 ATS off a road loss and 14-3 against the spread if it is by double digits.
Orlando complained outwardly about not being mentally ready, but what they were really saying they weren’t ready for was Kobe and the Lakers actually prepared to play 48 minutes. The Magic have had two days of preparation to make adjustments and forgettable loss is easy to shake for a team that is 13-5-1 ATS who about 71 hours between assignments.
Phil Jackson will presume Howard will see the ball with a higher frequency and be more aggressive in taking it to the hoop. His players might need to be a few inches even closer in second encounter, with Orlando likely hitting more of their shots. Offensively, keep attacking the Magic off the dribble and have motion that sets up Lamar Odom and Luke Walton for interior baskets. The Lakers also are very solid off two days of rest with 8-2 ATS mark.
The total has been reduced to 202 and L.A. is 12-2 UNDER as a postseason favorite. You have to figure the Magic bunch can’t play any worse and are 20-11 UNDER when the total is greater than or equal to 200.
The start time Sunday for Game 2 moves up an hour to 8 Eastern and Hedu Turkoglu and the guys will have to bring more game if they expect to improve upon recent 7-2 ATS run.
NBA: 25 Top NBA Finals Trends
2009-06-03
The 2009 NBA Finals might not offer the matchup that everyone expected, but it should still be a competitive series, and one that commands attention from bettors everywhere. Besides all of the specific key matchup info that we have available for you on the GAME MATCHUP for this intriguing series, take a look at this list of 25 Top NBA Finals’ Betting Angles we’ve put together for you. They are broken up into several categories. After soaking this up, head over to the LIVE ODDS page to get in on the action yourself.
EASTERN/WESTERN CONFERENCE TRENDS
* The EASTERN CONFERENCE has won seven straight NBA Finals games against the spread after the West had won eight of the prior 10.
* Overall, since ’97, the WESTERN CONFERENCE holds a 37-29 SU edge, but the ATS series is tied 32-32-2.
* The EASTERN CONFERENCE has only been the FAVORITE in 21 of the last 67 NBA Finals’ games. Their record in that role: 18-3 SU & 12-9 ATS.
* The WESTERN CONFERENCE has accumulated a 33-10 SU & 22-19-2 ATS mark as chalk in the NBA Finals since ’97.
FAVORITE/UNDERDOG TRENDS
* Dating back to ’97, ROAD TEAMS playing as FAVORITES or in pick em’ spreads are 12-2 SU & 9-4-1 ATS.
* The UNDERDOG team won four of the six games in the 2008 NBA Finals against the spread.
* SMALL HOME FAVORITES have been a great bet in the NBA Finals, as those laying 4-1/2 points or less are 18-4 SU & 15-7 ATS since ’97.
* It’s been a dangerous proposition to lay big points in the NBA Finals of late. Dating back to 2000, FAVORITES of 7-1/2 points or more are 9-3 SU but just 2-9-1 ATS.
OVER/UNDER TRENDS
* UNDER has been the total of choice in NBA Finals games of late, 10-6 over the course of the last three series’.
* Thursday’s Game 1 of the ’09 Finals between Orlando and the Lakers will be the first Finals’ game in over 12 years with a total of 200 or more.
* In the last 20 NBA Finals’ games with posted totals of 190 or above, the OVER has been the winning total 12 times, as opposed to 8 UNDER’s.
SERIES GAME NUMBER TRENDS
* The HOME TEAM is 5-1 SU & ATS in Game 1 of the NBA Finals dating back to 2003.
* Game 1 of the NBA Finals has gone UNDER the total five straight times.
* The HOME TEAM is also 5-0 SU & 4-0-1 ATS in Game 2 of the NBA Finals since ’04, with the last four teams owning home court advantage in the series going up 2-0.
* Although HOME TEAMS own a 4-1 SU edge in the L5 Game 3’s of the NBA Finals, the ROAD TEAMS have swept the last three ATS.
* The EASTERN CONFERENCE has owned Game 4 of the NBA Finals of late, going 5-1 SU & ATS since ’03.
* FAVORITES have also dominated Game 4 in the NBA Finals, 11-1 SU & 8-4 ATS since ’97.
* Home court advantage virtually disappears once Game 5 of the NBA Finals arrives, as the last 18 games from then on have been split 9-9 SU with ROAD TEAMS owning a distinct 12-6 ATS edge.
* OVER has been the correct total wager in nine of the last 13 NBA Finals Game 5’s and beyond.
SEED NUMBER TRENDS
* There have been three teams in the NBA Finals playing as seeds #3 or lower since ’02. They have performed very well: At home, those teams are 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS in that span. On the road, they are 5-4 SU & 5-2-2 ATS.
* #1 seeds have had some trouble protecting the home court vs. non-#1 seeds, just 3-7 SU & 2-6-2 ATS since ’01 in the NBA Finals. However, on the road they are 6-1 ATS in that same time frame.
SCORING TRENDS
* The benchmark point total for HOME TEAMS to reach is 96 points in the NBA Finals. When doing so, they are 26-5 SU & 18-11-2 ATS since ’97.
* When HOME TEAMS have eclipsed the 92-point mark in the NBA Finals, OVER the total is 23-9 since ’97. When they don’t score 93 points or more, the UNDER is 31-3.
* For ROAD TEAMS, the magic-mark seems to be 93 points. When they reach that total, they are 14-7 SU & 19-1-1 ATS since ‘98.
* Although a point total for any team of 80 or less this year seems unlikely between the Magic and Lakers, past ROAD TEAMS that have failed to eclipse the 80-point mark are just 2-16 SU & ATS in the NBA Finals since ’97.
NBA: Cleveland and backers in search of answers (8:35 PM ET, TNT)
2009-05-29
It’s not a great time to be a Cleveland basketball fan, because what looked like a return to the NBA Finals is in serious jeopardy. The Cavaliers situation has everything to do with what is taking place on the court, not preconceived notions. Cleveland may have one of the two best players in basketball; however the team is not as good as Orlando’s. The margin of difference is not dramatic, but it is enough to matter and Cleveland backers have four losing wagering tickets to prove it in this series. Still, the Cavs are a hefty favorite tonight and most bettors figure they’ll extend this series to a 6th game. Get the latest percentage breakdown on the BETTING TRENDS page.
So what have been the differences to this point, let’s examine.
Orlando plays an unusual style of offense; basically they have Dwight Howard as only true post player, surrounded by four perimeter players. Howard, though limited in offensive moves, has superior strength over Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Anderson Varejao and its laughable to suggest Ben Wallace would do better job than either of those two. Howard has had his way in the paint and uses his quickness to snatch offensive rebounds and have put-backs.
When Cleveland decides to double-team Howard, this leaves open the Magic’s array of shooters, who either can make medium or long distance shots, or drive to the basket thru open lanes created by doubling-down on Howard. It is clear the Cavs players are much more comfortable double-teaming within 5-15 feet range, as compared to being spread out like Orlando forces them to do at greater distances. This leaves coach Mike Brown with a real dilemma, either drink the poison or be injected with it.
Though Mo Williams and Delonte West are normally reliable shooters, they have not been in this series, not even close. This was never more evident than in Game 4, when the Cavaliers where moving the ball crisply and players that were able to get into the teeth of Orlando defense were kicking out passes to Williams and West and neither looked like they could make a shot if the basket was 2-feet larger in diameter. West to his credit worked on isolation matchups and was effective on the block in postup situations. Unfortunately, this twosome was gruesome 0-6 beyond the arc.
Cleveland returns home, where they are 44-3 (31-16 ATS), with one of the losses coming in the East Finals. As mentioned previously, one of the most difficult challenges for a sports bettor to overcome is believing what you are seeing and letting go of paradigms. Though Cleveland had the best regular season record and breezed thru first two rounds, they were 2-8 ATS versus teams that had 70 percent or higher win percentage during the regular season and four more losses have been added during this series.
Because Orlando had never accomplished much in the postseason, they were fairly easy to dismiss going up against Cleveland. The fact is the Magic are 32-18 SU and ATS on the road and though they were hammered a couple times in the postseason, to be that strong as a visitor speaks to the team’s true value.
Also, matchups are important and seeing Orlando is 10-4 and 13-1 ATS against the Cavaliers, this proves they have the physical and physiological edge.
Sportsbook.com has Cleveland as 7.5-point favorite with total of 190. For the Cavs to force Game 6 and beyond, they have to have starters play as they have all season. Orlando has gone through shooting droughts and still managed to make enough baskets to matter, Cleveland has not. The Cavs need to find help off the bench as well, since they are being buried by Magic reserves. Cleveland is 13-2 ATS off a road loss and 17-6 against the spread if it was three points or less.
Cleveland has too often talked, instead of played in this series. Even coach Brown is living in make-believe land. “This is about as even of a series as you can ask for. They’ve just made one or two plays down the stretch more than us. But I still feel the confidence, I still feel the togetherness and I still feel like we have a chance to win this,” Brown said. Coach, I hope you know this, but it is those one or two critical plays in games that make the difference between wins and losses and your team isn’t making them, no matter how much you love each other.
Though Orlando won’t discuss it, they are 9-1 ATS off two or more consecutive home wins this season and teams with 3-1 leads in NBA playoffs are 182-8 in league history to finish off series as winners.
The action continues on TNT starting at 8:35 Eastern.
